We rely on the French customs firm-level data and a model of imperfect competition on international markets to study how exporters pass a change in the VAT rate of one importing country through their prices. Contrasting with exchange-rate shocks, VAT-rate changes are longlasting, do not affect...

Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters we find evidence that those forecasters draw systematically biased predictions and disagree even if they forecast the same variable. Recent theoretical advances in the macroeconomics of imperfect information relate these bias and disagreement to...

We study how French exporters react to a VAT shock in a destination country. As VAT shocks are by nature almost permanent, exogenous, and without impact on marginal costs, the subsequent price reaction makes it possible to identify a pure demand-led mark-up adjustment. The results of an analysis...

We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: (i) forecasters disagree at all horizons including the very long run; (ii) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...

We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: 1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the very long run; 2) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...

Recent studies have emphasized that survey-based inflation risk measures are informative about future inflation, and thus are useful for monetary authorities. However, these data are typically only available at a quarterly frequency, whereas monetary policy decisions require a more frequent...

Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro-level, we emphasize two new facts: forecasters (i) fail to systematically update their forecasts and (ii) disagree even when updating. It is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast...

In this paper we propose a multivariate analysis of a cointegrated vectorial autoregressive model with structural breaks affecting the cointegrating vectors. These changes are previously recognized using a single-equation methodology. Asymptotic properties of the breaks dates estimators allow us...