In the literature on unobservable component models , three main statistical instruments have been used for signal extraction: fixed interval smoothing (FIS), which derives from Kalman's seminal work on optimal state-space filter theory in the time domain; Wiener-Kolmogorov-Whittle optimal signal...

The paper discusses a new, fully recursive approach to the adaptive modeling, forecasting and seasonal adjustment of nonstationary economic time-series. The procedure is based around a time variable parameter (TVP) version of the well known “component” or “structural” model. It employs a...

This book explores globalisation and the war on terror in a world that is becoming increasingly and significantly polarised and in which dialogue is undermined. The authors contend that citizenship does not obey a static definition, and that its meaning is located in changing economic, social...

Among the alternative Unobserved Components formulations within the stochastic state space setting, the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) has proved particularly useful for adaptive seasonal adjustment signal extraction, forecasting and back-casting of time series. Here, we show first how to...

The contemporary understanding of public sector risk management entails a broadening of the traditional bureaucratic approach to risk beyond the boundaries of purely financial risks. However, evidence suggests that in reality public sector risk management does not always match the rhetoric. This...

The UK has had a long history of market provision of household insurance. Recent years, however, have seen a decline in the traditional insurance market distribution channels aimed at low-income and/or rented-sector households. The products, pricing and method of payment currently offered by...

<title>Abstract</title> This research examines the experience of stakeholders of the Private Finance Initiative (PFI). The local authorities’ accounts of engaging stakeholders are compared against the stakeholders’ experience of being engaged. The findings suggest that the increasing procedures and tools...

<title/> Various bodies have recently discussed the apparent crisis facing the commercial insurance market and the underwriting of employers' liability insurance. As major employers who have traditionally used this market, local authorities would be expected to be heavily exposed to such a crisis....