The recent crisis underlined that proper estimation of distress-dependence amongst banks in a global system is essential for financial stability assessment. We present a set of banking stability measures embedding banks’ linear (correlation) and nonlinear distress-dependence, and their changes...

The estimation of the profit and loss distribution of a loan portfolio requires the modelling of the portfolio’s multivariate distribution. This describes the joint likelihood of changes in the credit-risk quality of the loans that make up the portfolio. A significant problem for portfolio...

The regulation of bank capital in the form of capital adequacy requirements is itself inherently procyclical; it bites in downturns, but fails to restrain in booms. The more risk-sensitive the regulation, the greater the scope for pro-cyclicality to become a problem, particularly in view of the...

This paper presents the Conditional Probability of Default (CoPoD) methodology for modelling the probabilities of loan defaults (PoDs) by small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) and unlisted firms as functions of identifiable macroeconomic and financial variables. The process of modelling PoDs...

The concept of risk-based capital requirements enjoys widespread support. Effective implementation, however, requires that risk be measured accurately both across borrowers and across time. Under the New Capital Accord, the cornerstone of this risk measurement process is the rating of the...

This paper defines a set of systemic financial stability indicators which measure distress dependence among the financial institutions in a system, thereby allowing to analyze stability from three complementary perspectives: common distress in the system, distress between specific banks, and...

The concept of risk-based capital requirements enjoys widespread support. Effective implementation, however, requires that risk be measured accurately both across borrowers and across time. Under the New Capital Accord, the cornerstone of this risk measurement process is the rating of the...

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilbrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We...

The purpose of our work is to explore contagious financial crises. To this end, we use simplified, thus numerically solvable, versions of our general model [Goodhart, Sunirand and Tsomocos (2003)]. The model incorporates heterogeneous agents, banks and endogenous default, thus allowing various...