We expand a standard New-Keynesian model by allowing for a special role of money in the inflation and expectations building process. Motivated by the two-pillar Phillips curve, we introduce heterogeneous expectations. Thereby a fraction of agents forms inflation expectations by observing trend...

Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the...

This paper is an empirical investigation of uncertainty in the Euro Zone as well as the US. It conducts a factor analysis of uncertainty measures starting in 2001 until the end of 2011. For this purpose I use survey-based data provided by the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia as...

This paper aims an empirical investigation of uncertainty in the Euro Zone as well as the US. For this purpose I conduct a factor analysis of uncertainty measures starting in 2001 until the end of 2011. I use survey-based data provided by the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia as...

Using a novel approach, this paper analyses the deliberately communicated uncertainty of the ECB to the market. Specifi cally, it semantically analyses the uncertainty expressed in offi cial ECB press statements. The analysis shows how the ECB tries to alert or appease the market with different...

We use quanto credit default swaps to analyse the impact of a credit event in the Eurozone on the Dollar-Euro exchange rate. In light of the European debt crisis, market participants are willing to pay more for protection against a sovereign credit event if it is denominated in US Dollars rather...

I estimate a Gaussian two-factor affine term structure model of bond yields for three countries, the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. I find a considerable time-varying component of excess returns in the data. They are positively correlated with the slope of the term structure and...

We merge a financial market model with leverage-constrained, heterogeneous agents with a reduced-form version of the New-Keynesian standard model. Agents in both submodels are assumed to be boundedly rational. The fi nancial market model produces endogenously arising boom-bust cycles. It is also...

This report analyses and reviews the corporate finance structure of non-financial corporations (NFCs) in the euro area, including how they interact with the macroeconomic environment. Special emphasis is placed on the crisis that began in 2007-08, thus underlining the relevance of financing and...