An important aspect of empirical research based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model is the choice of the lag order, since all inferences in this model depend on the correct model specification. There have been many studies on how to select the lag order of a nonstationary VAR model subject...

An important aspect of empirical research based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model is the choice of the lag order, since all inferences in this model depend on the correct model speci.cation. There have been many studies of how to select the lag order of a nonstationary VAR model subject...

An important aspect of empirical research based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model is the choice of the lag order, since all inference in the VAR model depends on the correct model specification. Literature has shown important studies of how to select the lag order of a nonstationary VAR...

This study explores the relationship between firm performance and business cycles. These cycles are deviations from the trend of an economy-wide variable, in our case, GDP. Using a sample of Brazilian listed firms and accounting measures of performance, we find a generally positive...

The aim of this work is to analyze the business cycles of the Mercosur?s member countries in order to investigate their degree of synchronization. The econometric model uses the Beveridge-Nelson-Stock-Watson multivariate trend-cycle decomposition, taking into account the presence of common...

In this work we propose a methodology to compare different stochastic discount factor (SDF) proxies based on relevant market information. The starting point is the work of Fama and French, which evidenced that the asset returns of the U.S. economy could be explained by relative factors linked to...

This paper compares the short-term load performance of several forecasting models, including a new class of nonlinear models known as smooth transition periodic autoregressive (STPAR) models. A model building procedure is developed for the STPAR model, along with a linearity test against smooth...

In electrical power systems with strong hydro generation, the use of adequate techniques to generate synthetic hydrological scenarios is extremely important for the evaluation of the ways the system behaves in order to meet the forecast energy demand. This paper proposes a new model to generate...