Since the early 1990s, as the United States has borrowed from the rest of the world, employment in U.S. goods-producing sectors has fallen. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we find that rapid productivity growth in goods production, not U.S. borrowing, has been the most important...

Since the early 1990s, the United States has borrowed heavily from its trading partners. This paper presents an analysis of the impact of an end to this borrowing, an end that could occur suddenly or gradually.

Since the early 1990s, as the United States has borrowed from the rest of the world, employment in U.S. goods-producing sectors has fallen. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we find that rapid productivity growth in goods production, not U.S. borrowing, has been the most important...

This appendix contains the original data, constructed data, and full documentation for "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?" by Timothy J. Kehoe and Kim J. Ruhl.

This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (2-digit ISIC) based on the distribution of exports before the reform by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2009) that much of the growth in trade after trade...

The United States has borrowed heavily from the rest of the world since the early 1990s. We build a model where this borrowing is driven by foreign demand for saving – a global savings glut – that matches the dynamics of the U.S. trade balance, real exchange rate, sector-level...

We propose a model that can account for both the dynamics of the firm's exports and debt stock along its life cycle, and the short-term responses of large and small exporters to credit shocks. In our model, the demand for external credit results from two different motives: i) to finance fixed...

We build a micro-founded two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which trade responds more to a cut in tariffs in the long run than in the short run. The model introduces a time element to the fixed-variable cost trade-off in a heterogeneous producer trade model. Thus, the dynamics of...

Using firm-level data on U.S. multinationals, we find that affiliates created for vertical FDI motives seem to be larger and fewer—both within the firm and across affiliates—while affiliates that appear to be created for horizontal FDI motives are smaller and more common. Next, we...

International trade is frequently thought of as a production technology in which the inputs are exports and the outputs are imports. Exports are transformed into imports at the rate of the price of exports relative to the price of imports: the reciprocal of the terms of trade. Cast this way, a...