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This article outlines two general approaches to disentangle expected defaults and anticipated devaluations from distressed sovereign spreads. The first uses affine term structure models and uncovered interest rate parity to extract a schedule between risk-neutral devaluation odds and exchange...
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increased it for France and Germany. …
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in inflation rate, in France. A data set has been constructed, which contains zero-coupon yield curves on government …
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France. These results are used to calibrate a scenario in a multi-country model describing the macro-financial linkages in … France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. The scenario analysis suggests that the reduction in bond yields due to OMT announcements … spillovers in France and Germany …
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