We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market in order to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a dramatic decrease in shale production costs and explore how the resultant increase in shale production affects the level and...

This paper examines the contribution of market expectations to commodity price dynamics. It proposes a dynamic competitive storage framework with an expectations shock explicitly along with concurrent shocks to study the commodity price movements. This allows for a more refined analysis of the...

This paper shows that oil shocks primarily impact economic growth through the conditional variance of growth. Our comparison of models focuses on density forecasts. Over a range of dynamic models, oil shock measures and data we fi nd a robust link between oil shocks and the volatility of...