This paper estimates a linearised DSGE model for the euro area. The model is New Keynesian and allows for a role for oil usage and endogenous price markups. We find that the price markup reacts positively to the ratio of expected discounted profits to current output, which is normally seen to...

This paper develops a two-block Structural Vector Autoregression featuring time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to estimate the changing spillover of global oil shocks into the Maltese economy during the period that goes from January 2008 to March 2022. The model is estimated by...

The aim of this paper is to test the impacts of oil price increases on monetary policy implementation in the largest oil importers. For that purpose, we estimate structural vector error correction (SVEC) models to show the impacts of oil price increases on industrial production, consumer prices...

The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the...

We investigate an impact of oil-price shocks on GDP and exchange rate dynamics in resource-heterogeneous economies. We employ a Markov regime-switching version of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to allow for regime shifts, non-linear effects and timevarying parameters of the VAR process....

We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that these effects are nonlinear and asymmetric: there is no such persistence...

This paper assesses the impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation. We find, consistently with recent international evidence, that the inflationary effect of oil price changes is limited, even though crude oil price fluctuations are a major driver of inflation...

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach - disaggregating...

Ghana is poised to be one of the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa because of its emerging oil and gas industry. Ghana's discovery of oil in commercial quantities in 2007 and its commencement of production in 2010 are expected to have an impact on the economy. To investigate these,...