In this paper we develop a new way of modelling time variation in term premia. This is based on the stochastic discount factor model of asset pricing with observable macroeconomic factors. The joint distribution of excess holding period US bond returns of different maturity and the fundamental...

This paper examines the relationship between the New Zealand government yield curve and the contribution of global and domestic factors influencing it. We apply the Nelson and Siegel method, which has been widely used internationally for fitting a yield curve, to decompose it into three...

This paper proposes a procedure for testing alternative specifications of the short term interest rate's dynamics which takes into account that according to some restrictions the interest rate is nonstationary, i.e. the traditional test statistic has a non-standard distribution. Moreover, we do...

This paper proposes a possible way of assessing the effect on interest rate dynamics of changes in the decision-making approach, in the communication strategy and in the operational framework of a central bank. Through a GARCH specification we show that the US and the euro area displayed a...

During and after the Great Recession of 2008-09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more...

This paper examines the relationship between the New Zealand government yield curve and the contribution of global and domestic factors influencing it. We apply the Nelson and Siegel method, which has been widely used internationally for fitting a yield curve, to decompose it into three...

The movement of sovereign yields is important for both investment and risk management. In this paper, we apply a method that was first developed by Diebold et al (2006b) to model the sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany. By including observable macroeconomic variables and the...

In this paper, we show how to calculate the price of zero-coupon bonds for many Gaussian and Levy one-factor and multi-factor models of r(t) using change of time method. These models include, in particular, Ornshtein-Uhlenbeck (1930), Vasicek (1977), Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985), continuous-time...

With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modeling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modeling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency and their fits are assessed in terms of...

This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic news on the dynamics of interest rates and stock returns during "low" and "high" volatility periods. These periods are determined by estimating asset dynamics using a SWARCH process. Our results suggest that securities volatility is higher...