In this paper we develop a new way of modelling time variation in term premia. This is based on the stochastic discount factor model of asset pricing with observable macroeconomic factors. The joint distribution of excess holding period US bond returns of different maturity and the fundamental...

This paper proposes a possible way of assessing the effect on interest rate dynamics of changes in the decision-making approach, in the communication strategy and in the operational framework of a central bank. Through a GARCH specification we show that the US and the euro area displayed a...

This paper examines the macro-spanning hypothesis for bond returns in international markets. Based on a large panel of real-time macro variables that are not subject to revisions, wefind that global macro factors have predictive power for bond returns unspanned by yield factors.Furthermore, we...

To what extent are currency crashes linked to sovereign defaults? Measuring their relationship is notoriously difficult because these are rare disaster events. I take a novel approach. I learn about the risk-neutral distribution of rare currency crushes from prices of far out-of-the-money (FOM)...

I discuss some of the challenges and possible responses of the economics and finance profession following the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. I do this in the context of three examples. The first example draws on the Bank of England’s forward guidance on interest rates by...

With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modeling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modeling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency and their fits are assessed in terms of...

This paper considers a simple Continuous Beliefs System (CBS) toinvestigate the effects on price dynamics of several behavioralassumptions: (i) herd behaviour; (ii) a-synchronous updating ofbeliefs; and (iii) heterogeneity in time horizons (memory) amongagents. The recently introduced concept of...

For six important energy futures markets, this study examines whether large price movements (i.e., jumps) are related to the arrival and information content of scheduled macroeconomic announcements. Since prior studies by Kilian and Vega [(2011) Review of Economics and Statistics, 93, 660–671]...

This paper presents an innovative approach to extracting factors which are shown to predict the VIX, the S&P 500 Realized Volatility and the Variance Risk Premium. The approach is innovative along two different dimensions, namely: (1) we extract factors from panels of filtered volatilities - in...

Using high-frequency intraday data, we construct, test and model seven new realized volatility estimators for six international equity indices. We detect jumps in these estimators, construct the jump components of volatility and perform various tests on their properties. Then we use the class of...