The paper investigates the linkages between temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO. By means of a new flexible trend modeling approach, we uncover a nonlinear linkage between radiative forcing and global temperature anomalies. The nonlinear trend closely tracks the low frequency...

This paper proposes three main results that enable the estimation of high dimensional multivariate stochastic volatility models. The first result is the closed-form steady-state Kalman filter for the multivariate AR(1) plus noise model. The second result is an accelerated EM algorithm for...