In their seminal Journal of Finance article, Miller, Muthuswamy, and Whaley (MMW) [1994] document that the observed mean reversion of changes in the basis of cash and stock index futures prices is likely illusory. MMW use a simple time-series model to suggest that the apparent mean-reversion in...

The current paper proposes a conditional volatility model with time varying coefficients based on a multinomial switching mechanism. By giving more weight to either the persistence or shock term in a GARCH model, conditional on their relative ability to forecast a benchmark volatility measure,...