There is a large empirical literature trying to quantify the potentially adverse affects of climate change on the risk of violent armed conflict, which focuses almost exclusively on linking annual variation in climatic conditions to violence. A major shortcoming of this approach is that it...

Although most aid projects are aimed at local development, most research on the aid-conflict nexus is based on the country-year as unit of analysis. In contrast, this study examines the link between aid commitments and conflict intensity at the local level for three African countries between...

This study exploits a shift in Spring precipitation patterns in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño to examine the effect of climate change on conflict. Using data for Ethiopia and Kenya and focusing on communal conflict the regression analysis links districts that have experienced...

This study reviews the contribution in predictive accuracy of a number of geographic and socio-economic factors that are commonly linked to conflict incidence. A logit model is fitted to sub-national data for Africa at grid-cell level covering the years 2000-2009, generating an out-of-sample...