This paper introduces two continuous time models, i.e. time homogenous and non-homogenous Markov chain models, for analyzing farm credit migration as alternatives to the traditional discrete time model cohort method. Results illustrate that the two continuous time models provide more detailed,...

Loan records and lender credit risk classifications are used to examine agricultural credit risk migration. The results include estimates of the likelihood of borrowers transitioning among five credit risk tiers. The paper also examines factors that influence or predict credit risk migration and...

This research focuses on developing a biannual net revenue forecasting model for hog producers based on Monte Carlo simulation of the joint distribution of hog, corn and soybean meal price series. The relative forecasting power of historical volatility, implied volatility and GARCH-based...

This study divides the U.S. economy into the agricultural and industrial sectors and compares the degree of the involvement of exchange rates in each sector without specifying the rigid assumption of either exogeneity or endogeneity of exchange rates. Both short- and long-run impacts of shocks...

A financial training program designed by Cooperative Extension specialists was provided to over 2,000 USDA/FSA borrowers from the Northeast during the period 1994-1999. Key to the success of the workshops was an in-depth, user-friendly curriculum that evolved over time, eventually replacing...

The recent drop in gross income from lower commodity prices has not lowered cash rental rates. Farmers may continue paying current cash rents because of machinery considerations and because of their expectations about future prices. Kentucky farm-level data is used to examine net income under...

Replaced with revised version of paper 06/17/08.

Detailed customer loan records were used to investigate the profitability of agricultural lending relationships. Analyses consider a variety of factors that influence the costs and returns associated with agricultural lending relationships. Among other things, the results provide evidence of...

Regression analysis is used to estimate static and dynamic restructuring, direct and external effects of mergers from 1994 to 2001 on bank agricultural loan-to-asset ratios. Results indicate that mergers have a negative effect on agricultural loan ratios. The effect is less pronounced for...

Financial, farm economy and bank factors are hypothesized to explain variation in FSA guaranteed loan principal outstanding. Regression models using state-level data (1990-1998) are estimated. Debt-to-asset ratios, percentage of agricultural revenues due to crops, interest rates, and off-farm...