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model relative to even very complex multivariate GARCH specifications, recently reported in the literature using measures of …-of-sample forecast tests indicate that the four-regime MS model is, indeed, superior to all of the GARCH specifications in forecasting …-asset return covariances, however, the MS model is surprisingly superior to all of the GARCH models. …
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This paper investigates the dynamics of international stock return correlations between the U.S., the U.K., Germany and France. Estimated correlations are modeled in an ARDL framework to evaluate how the market-wide uncertainty in the U.S. affects international stock market comovements. Results...
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A prediction model is any statement of a probability distribution for an outcome not yet observed. This study considers the properties of weighted linear combinations of n prediction models, or linear pools, evaluated using the conventional log predictive scoring rule. The log score is a concave...
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variables, interest rates, and inflation rate on two Islamic stock market indices. Using time series analysis such as GARCH the …
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We extend the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH) model for daily stock return data with long memory …-in-mean effect is significant, and the FIEGARCH-M model outperforms the original FIEGARCH model and alternative GARCH …
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