We test whether forecast bias affects household stock trading by combining measures of bias elicited in laboratory experiments with administrative trade-level data. On average, subjects exhibit positive forecast bias (i.e., extrapolators), while a large minority exhibit negative forecast bias...

This study examines whether heterogeneous beliefs contribute to the incidence of the disposition effect. We measure optimism using elicited beliefs from incentivized experiments and surveys and link these measures to investment decisions using administrative register data. We find that...