We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with "fragile beliefs"' are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit default swaps (CDS) data shows that...

We propose a tractable equilibrium model for pricing defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with 'fragile beliefs' are uncertain about both the underlying state of the economy and the posterior probabilities associated with these states. As such,...

Most affine models of the term structure with stochastic volatility (SV) predict that the variance of the short rate is simultaneously a linear combination of yields and the quadratic variation of the spot rate. However, we find empirically that the A1(3) SV model generates a time series for the...

We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with "fragile beliefs'' are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit default swaps (CDS) data shows that...

We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with 'fragile beliefs' are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European CDS data shows that agents require a...

Most affine models of the term structure with stochastic volatility (SV) predict that the variance of the short rate is simultaneously a linear combination of yields and the quadratic variation of the spot rate. However, we find empirically that the A1(3) SV model generates a time series for the...