; labor market behavior ; transition ; state dependence … der Arbeit web site …

waves to estimate how regional population reacts to asymmetric shocks. These shocks are measured by non-employment rates …, unemployment rates, and wages in fixed-effects regressions which effectively use changes in these indicators over time within … regions as identifying information. Because we include region and time effects, we interpret regression-adjusted population …

estimate the implications for job creation in 2020-2030 of population growth, changes in labor force participation, and the … coming decades. Overall, shifting demographics, changing labor force participation rates, reductions in unemployment to the … achievement of plausible target unemployment rates, disaggregated by age and gender. Second, we analyze the job creation needs …