The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the...

This paper discusses various concepts of unemployment rate benchmarks that are frequently used by policymakers for assessing the current state of the economy as it relates to the pursuit of both price stability and maximum employment. In particular, we propose two broad categories of...

Building a model with three imperfect markets – goods, labor and credit – representing aproduct’s life-cycle, we find that goods market frictions drastically change the qualitative andquantitative dynamics of labor market variables. The calibrated model leads to a significantreduction in...