Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become...

The level of bankarization (access to and use of banking services) is relatively low in Argentina both in historical terms and compared with similarly developed countries. This is shown by indicators both of access to and use of banking services. This paper analyzes a unique database containing...

This paper analyzes the evolution and differential scope of restrictions to financing for the companies surveyed by the Large Companies Survey (ENGE) of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) during the period 1995-2003. The main purpose of this study is to differentiate results...

We use a variation on the business cycle accounting method of Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan to study the business cycle in Argentina from 1972 to 2006. We use capital utilization as a household decision variable to be able to better extract the wedge that functions as a tax on capital. Applying the...

The uncertainty around monetary policy decision-making requires central banks to make extensive use of macroeconomic models both to analyze the current economic situation and to forecast the evolution of the main economic variables. The Small Economic Model (SEM) for Argentina describes in a...

The presence of seasonal fluctuations (regular behavior along the year related to weather or institutional factors) invalidates monthly (quarterly) comparisons. In turn, since inter-annual variations depend on the comparison basis being used, they could provide very little information to the...

We estimate a “Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve” for Argentina between 1993 and 2007. We extend the model to a small open economy, considering separately the influence of nominal devaluation and foreign inflation on domestic prices. For the whole sample, we find that forward and...

We study the evolution of inflation persistence in Argentina between 1980 and 2007, a period in which significant changes in mean inflation can be detected by simple observation. We adopt both a timeseries univariate and a frequency-domain approach. Following the former perspective breaks in the...

Recent cross-country empirical evidence indicates that the money-prices relationship depends on the average rate of inflation. This relationship is strong in economies with high inflation, but weakens under low inflation. Based on these findings, we study the dependence of the money-prices...

Financial constraints affect firms’ financial and productive decisions generating substantial macroeconomic implications in terms of investment, economic growth, inflation and income distribution. Despite its relevance, financial constraints are not directly observable. However, empirically...