Choi, Jaehyuk; Ge, Desheng; Kang, Kyu H.; Sohn, Sungbin - 2021
The literature on using yield curves to forecast recessions typically measures the term spread as the difference between the 10-year and the three-month Treasury rates. Furthermore, using the term spread constrains the long- and short-term interest rates to have the same absolute effect on the...
