This paper develops a novel approach to information-based securities trading by characterizing the hidden state of the market, which varies following a Markov process. Extensive simulation demonstrates that the approach can successfully identify market states and generate measures of...

This paper develops a novel approach to information-based securities trading by characterizing the hidden state of the market, which varies following a Markov process. Extensive simulation demonstrates that the approach can successfully identify market states and generate dynamic measures of...

Investors in a market frequently update their diverse perceptions of the values of risky assets, thus invalidating the classic capital asset pricing model's (CAPM) assumption of complete agreement among investors. To accommodate information asymmetry and belief updating, we have developed an...

Applying a recently developed approach, the paper estimates the daily arrival rates of buy and sell orders originated from different trading motives for each stock in a sample of NYSE-listed companies. Based on these arrival rates, it shows that stock return tends to continue on consecutive days...