This paper extends the literature on the information content of financial variables with respect to future economic growth. It shows that variables originating from both the equity market and the bond market in Switzerland are useful indicators for forecasting the Swiss business cycle. In...

The goal of this paper is to assess, for the first time, the empirical impact of "Kaynes' beauty contest", or "higher order belief", on asset price volatility. The paper shows that heterogeneous expectations induce higher order beliefs and that heterogeneous expectation asset pricing models...

We propose a new method for pricing options based on GARCH models with filtered historical innovations. In an incomplete market framework we allow for different distributions of the historical and the pricing return dynamics enhancing the model flexibility to fit market option prices. An...

This paper extends the class of deterministic volatility Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) models to a Markov chain stochastic volatility framework allowing for jump discontinuities and a variety of deformations of the term structure of forward rate volatilities. Analytical solutions for the dynamics...

This paper introduces a time-inhomogeneous parameterization of the forward LIBOR volatilities and analyzes its implications for the valuation of Bermudan swaptions. The model approximates the actual term structure of volatilities with a curve from a given set defined by the parametric...

We propose a simple class of semiparametric multivariate GARCH models, allowing for asymmetric volatilities and time-varying conditional correlations. Estimates for time-varying conditional correlations are constructed by means of a convex combination of estimates for averaged correlations...

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generating reliable scenarios and confidence intervals for the term structure of interest rates from historical data. The approach is based on a functional gradient descent (FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and the conditional...

We show that the volatility of a price process, which is usuallyregarded as an impediment to financial growth, can serve as an en-dogenous factor in its acceleration.

We outline a martingale duality method for determining the minimal entropy martingale measure in a general continuous semimartingale model, and provide the relevant verification results. This method is illustrated by a detailed case study of the Stein and Stein stochastic volatility model driven...

In a heterogenous agents framework, we study a randomized version of Zeeman's market model with fundamental and momentum traders. Using methods from random dynamical systems theory, we examine convergence properties of invariant measures which correspond to market equilibria. It turns out that...