Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

According to the June 2006 economic outlook of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Austria’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 2.5% in 2006 and 2.2% in both 2007 and 2008. The OeNB’s growth forecast for 2006 has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point since the...