This paper uses a multifactor model to examine the role of crude oil as a pricing factor in Australian excess industry returns over the period January 1980 to August 2006. A dynamic model is also specified to provide insights into the relationship between the stock market and past oil price...

This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from...

In this article the relationship between market return and volatility is examined by applying out-of-sample methodology and ARCH (M) class models in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and international stock exchanges. The results are inconsistent with portfolio theory implications in NASDAQ, ISE...

The arrival of new information helps financial markets to value assets, but it may has the side-effect of increasing their volatilities. A better knowledge of the mechanism that links relevant news and stock prices would help both private and institutional agents to improve the calibration of...

Understanding correlations in complex systems is crucial in the face of turbulence, such as the ongoing financial crisis. However, in complex systems, such as financial systems, correlations are not constant but instead vary in time. Here we address the question of quantifying state-dependent...

This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between stock prices and stock fundamentals. We focus on the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a major eurozone stock index, and its dividend futures. From the observed prices of the dividend futures and Euribor (swap) rates, we calculate the transition of term...