It is commonly agreed that the term spread and stock returns are useful in predicting recessions. We investigate whether interest rate and stock market volatility play an additional role as recession indicators. Both risk-return analysis and the theory of investment under uncertainty provide a...

This paper revisits some recently found evidence in the literature on the cross-section of stock returns for a carefully constructed dataset of euro area stocks. First, we confirm recent results for U.S. data and find evidence of a negative cross-sectional relation between extreme positive...

We re-examine dividend growth and return predictability evidence using 165 years of data from the Brussels Stock Exchange. The conventional wisdom holds that time-varying dividend yield is predominately explained by changes in expected returns and that expected dividend growth is only weakly...