Global economic growth at the end of the year strongly predicts returns from a wide spectrum of international assets, such as global, regional, and individual-country stocks, FX, and commodities. Global economic growth at other times of the year does not predict international returns. Low growth...

This paper develops an extension of Cochrane's (2008) joint hypothesis framework by allowing the coefficients to depend on the state of the economy. For recessions the results are clear-cut. Dividend yields vary entirely due to return predictability. However, in expansions, the "dog that did not...

This paper introduces a novel consumption-based variable, cyclical consumption, and examines its predictive properties for stock returns. Future expected stock returns are high (low) when aggregate consumption falls (rises) relative to its trend and marginal utility from current consumption is...

We study investor expectations of stock returns on the S&P 500 index using data from the Livingston survey over the 1952-2019 period. We find that investors have slow-moving and countercyclical expected stock returns consistent with consumption-based model predictions. We find no evidence that...

We decompose stock market returns into cash flow news and discount rate news and show that an increase (decrease) in discount rate news, which reflects an increase in the quantity of risk or level of risk aversion in the economy, predicts a decrease (increase) in future aggregate output....