In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

In this paper we propose a new bootstrap, or Monte-Carlo, approach to such problems. Traditional bootstrap methods in this context are based on fitting a process chosen from a wide but relatively conventional range of discrete time series models, including autoregressions, moving averages,...

Information about risk preferences from investors is essential for modelling a wide range of quantitative finance applications. Valuable information related to preferences can be extracted from option prices through pricing kernels. In this paper, pricing kernels and their term structure are...