This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from...

Sequentially examining the full chain of events starting from the default of firms through the fire-sale of goods towards write-offs of bad loans, a new matrix of financial transactions was developed. It was shown that if firms have no equities, the cost of default of those firms is equal zero....

This article develops an agent-based model of security market pricing process, capable to capture main stylised facts. It features collective market pricing mechanisms based upon evolving heterogeneous expectations that incorporate signals of security issuer fundamental performance over time....

Biondi et al. (2012) develop an analytical model to examine the emergent dynamic properties of share market price formation over time, capable to capture important stylized facts. These latter properties prove to be sensitive to regulatory regimes for fundamental information provision, as well...

This paper develops a theoretical analysis of share market price formation driven by accounting and market structures. Heterogeneous investors are assumed to discover and process fundamental information disclosed by accounting system of share-issuing entity. Information set available to share...

The Fed has never admitted targeting stock prices. Yet our empirical analysis, based on a small macro-econometric model of the U.S. economy in the period 1981-2002, shows that the Fed explicitly takes into account stock price variations in its reaction function. Furthermore, our simulation...

Stock market movement is driven by numerous factors, both at national and international levels, and because of the multiplicative effect of these factors, the market movement has been majorly random and very less predictable. A number of research studies have been undertaken in the past to model...

This article examines the impact of news about the Bank of Japan monetary policy announcements regarding the Japanese yen, US dollar, and the Euro interest rates. Whether or not the announcements from the monetary authorities impact the domestic markets is related to the success of their...

In an effort to provide a set of reasonable expectations for stock market performance during 2011, we present results of two simple econometric exercises. Our starting point is the recent trough of economic activity which took place in June of 2009, according to the NBER. This means 2011...