We provide theoretical and empirical evidence over 1871–2014 that total payouts (dividends plus buybacks) are the key drivers of long-run stock market returns. We show that total payouts per share (adjusted for the share decrease from buybacks) grew in line with economic productivity, whereas...

The shift in corporate payout policy from dividends to buybacks creates the need for a new supply model of stock returns. Our study provides theoretical and empirical evidence for a total payout (dividends plus buybacks) model of stock returns. First, we show that long-run stock returns between...

The SBBI® Summary Edition will help investment professionals gain an understanding of major asset class returns, return calculations, and the long term impact of size, value/growth, and liquidity on returns