In a Lucas orchard with heterogeneous beliefs, we study the link between market-wide uncertainty, difference of opinionsand co-movement of stock returns. We show that this link plays an important role in explaining the dynamics of equilibriumvolatility and correlation risk premia. In our...

This paper examines the relative information shares of the Bund, i.e. the ten-year Euro bond future contract on German sovereign debt, versus two futures with shorter maturity. We find that the Bund is most important but does not dominate price discovery. The other contracts also have relevant -...

This paper analyzes empirical market utility functions and pricing kernels derived from the DAX and DAX option data for three market regimes. A consistent parametric framework of stochastic volatility is used. All empirical market utility functions show a region of risk proclivity that is...

Supported by several recent investigations the empirical pricing kernel paradox might be considered as a stylized fact. In Chabi-Yo et al. (2008) simulation studies have been presented which suggest that this paradox might be caused by regime switching of stock prices in financial markets....

In this paper we will be estimating risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. We have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and...

In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk – as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. The time profile and overall...

We study the risk of holding credit default swaps (CDS) in the trading book. In particular, we compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respective firm's equity. Our sample consists of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms over the period...

In this paper we consider the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. We propose a partially linear error correction model where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. We estimate our model using data on the DAX...

Inspired by the theory of social imitation (Weidlich 1970) and its adaptation to financial markets by the Coherent Market Hypothesis (Vaga 1990), we present a behavioral model of stock prices that supports the overreaction hypothesis. Using our dynamic stock price model, we develop a two factor...