This study provides an explanation for the emergence of power laws in asset trading volume and returns. We consider a two-state model with binary actions, where traders infer other traders' private signals regarding the value of an asset from their actions and adjust their own behavior...

We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs setting of Kurz (1994a,b). In a potentially non-stationary but stationarizable environment, it is possible to hold more than one (small-r) “rational” expectation. When rational...

We present strong evidence that financial bubbles can be identified ex-ante and that a sharp price increase, when suitably qualified by a bubble indicator called LPPLS confidence, does on average predict unusually low returns going forward. For this, we use a methodology called log-periodic...

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be...