This paper provides an optimal filtering methodology in discretely observed continuous-time jump-diffusion models. Although the filtering problem has received little attention, it is useful for estimating latent states, forecasting volatility and returns, computing model diagnostics such as...

This paper examines an issue overlooked in the finance and economics literature: time variation in announcement volatility or event risk. We combine long spans of high-frequency data with a flexible parametric model of returns, which al- lows to identify announcement returns, capture intraday...

This paper provides a methodology for estimating FOMC event risk from options and studies how index option markets price FOMC event risk. Using high-quality intraday option data for short maturities we are able to cleanly estimate ex-ante FOMC event risk, avoiding the use of noisy proxies like...

We study the returns to investing in VIX futures and VIX Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs). We document a substantial negative return premium for both ETNs and the futures. For example, the a constant maturity portfolio of one-month VIX futures loses about 30% per year over our sample period...