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forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016. We consider the SPY and 20 stocks that …, 60, and 300 seconds), forecast horizons (1, 5, 22, and 66 days) and the use of standard and robust-to-noise volatility … real-time forecasts than the HAR-RV model, although no single extended model dominates. In general, standard volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889687
the financial crisis, suggesting that an extreme volatility period requires models that can adapt quickly to turmoil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925879
Volatility has been used as an indirect means for predicting risk accompanied with an asset. Volatility explains the … variations in returns. Forecasting volatility has been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. This study examined the … different volatility estimators and determined the most efficient volatility estimator. The study described the accuracy of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870348
Volatility had been used as an indirect means for predicting risk accompanied with the asset. Volatility explains the … variations in returns. Forecasting volatility had been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. The study examined the … different volatility estimators and determined the efficient volatility estimator. The study described the accuracy of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860158
There is evidence that volatility forecasting models that use intraday data provide better forecast accuracy as … fills this gap in the literature and extends previous studies on forecasting stock market volatility in several important …, we use forecast horizons ranging from 1 day to 6 months. Third, we evaluate the precision of volatility forecast provided …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935461
We survey the literature on stock return forecasting, highlighting the challenges faced by forecasters as well as strategies for improving return forecasts. We focus on U.S. equity premium forecastability and illustrate key issues via an empirical application based on updated data. Some studies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351279
We propose a new class of conditional heteroskedasticity in the volatility (CH-V) models which allows for time …-varying volatility of volatility in the volatility of asset returns. This class nests a variety of GARCH-type models and the SHARV model … of Ding (2021b). CH-V models can be seen as a special case of the stochastic volatility of volatility model. We then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214647
This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379456
We investigate the impact of order flow imbalance (OFI) on price movements in equity markets in a multi-asset setting. First, we show that taking into account multiple levels of the order book when defining order book imbalance leads to higher explanatory power for the contemporaneous price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309799
A Monte Carlo (MC) experiment is conducted to study the forecasting performance of a variety of volatility models under … Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models ((FI)GARCH), the Stochastic Volatility model (SV) and the Markov … different characterizations of the latent volatility process: specifications which incorporate short/long memory, autoregressive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003932329