This study investigates whether CEO Big Five personalities (i.e., agreeableness, conscientiousness, extraversion, neuroticism and openness) are associated with stock price crash risk. The Big Five can influence managerial behaviors to withhold or release bad news. When the amount of withheld...

We investigate the impact of fraud risk - measured by the probability for earnings overstatements - on a firm's future stock market performance. Based on an out-of-sample estimation of individual firms' fraud risk, we find that stocks with higher fraud risk earn significantly lower stock market...

Using monthly data from 01/1985 to 12/2012, we find that the accounting valuation-based predictor introduced in Lee, Myers, and Swaminathan (1999) has excellent in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance. Our finding suggests that the accounting valuation-based predictor does not suffer...

Investors allocate attention between competing activities and signals. Existing theories suggest that macro-news announcements crowd out attention to firm-level news, causing greater market underreaction to firm-level earnings announcements. We find the opposite: the sensitivity of announcement...

We show that the magnitude of the value premium over 1968-2018 is conditional on states of aggregate market-wide misvaluation. The value premium is 3.42% per month following market-wide undervaluation and 1.70% per month following market-wide overvaluation. When the aggregate market is neither...

Using survey forecasts, we find that systematic errors in expectations of long-term inflation and short-term nominal earnings growth are the main driver of prices and return puzzles for bonds and stocks. We demonstrate this by deriving and testing a single necessary and sufficient condition...