Despite widespread media interest in bull and bear markets, academic research that seeks to formally define bull markets is almost non-existent. This paper defines bull and bear markets in relation to a simple model of mean return regimes, and implements the definition using two formal turning...

Chinese companies report year-end earnings and dividends simultaneously, so when the two sets of news are in conflict, the relative importance of earnings versus dividends can be disentangled. Chinese dividend announcements take precedence over earnings news, as revealed by Cumulative Absolute...

This paper examines whether stock market returns forecasts should take account of the political party in power by re-examining the prior literature to demonstrate that US stock market political regime differences are neither significant nor long-lasting. We demonstrate that the presidential...

This paper investigates whether there is a banking risk premium that helps explain the returns of US publicly listed firms. We assess this phenomenon in the context of the capital asset pricing model and the Fama and French three-factor model. We use bank size to create the banking factor – a...