We show that the previously documented predictability of macroeconomic and technical variables for market returns is also evident in individual stock returns. Technical variables generate better predictability on firms with higher limits to arbitrage (smaller, illiquid, volatile firms), while...

We investigate the specification and power of intraday event study test statistics. Both the mean and market models generate well-specified return results for one- to thirty- minute intervals. Moreover, they detect return shocks equivalent to one spread in one- and five-minute interval data and...

We use two extremely liquid S&P 500 ETFs to analyze the prevailing trading conditions when mispricing allowing arbitrage opportunities is created. While these ETFs are not perfect substitutes, we show that their minor differences are not responsible for the mispricing. Spreads increase just...

We investigate whether momentum or reversal is the dominant phenomenon in short horizon (one- to four-week) foreign exchange rate returns. We find, based on a broad sample of 63 emerging and developed market currencies, evidence of momentum rather than reversal. Momentum returns are as large as...

Price movements in industrial metals such as copper and aluminum predict stock returns. Increasing industrial metal prices are good news for equity markets in recessions and bad news in expansions. A one standard deviation increase in industrial metal returns predicts a price drop of one and a...