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Investment booms and asset "bubbles" are often the consequence of heavily leveraged borrowing and speculations of persistent growth in asset demand. We show theoretically that dynamic interactions between elastic credit supply (due to leveraged borrowing) and persistent credit demand (due to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115731
Why are asset prices so much more volatile and so often detached from their fundamental values? Why does the bursting of financial bubbles depress the real economy? This paper addresses these questions by constructing an infinite-horizon heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158843
We estimate agents' expectations about future fundamentals using a dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model augmented with anticipated shocks. Accounting for agents' expectations atthe business cycle horizon results in aggregate risk factor innovations that have significant explanatory power...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643121
We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093040
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353733
Ljungqvist and Sargent (2017) (LS) show that unemployment fluctuations can be understood in terms of a quantity they call the "fundamental surplus." However, their analysis ignores risk premia, a force that Hall (2017) shows is important in understanding unemployment fluctuations. We show how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012649569
This paper studies the importance of idiosyncratic endowment shocks for aggregate asset prices in continuous time. My generalized framework accommodates jumps and heterogeneous recursive preferences. I show that countercyclical cross-sectional risk is irrelevant to risk premia if and only if all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237723
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014513322
We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852748
We decompose the standard consumption beta into two components that measure consumption risk in high and low economic activity states. Recessionary consumption risk commands a positive and statistically significant compensation, while the market price of expansionary consumption risk is not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014265286