We propose a simple framework for understanding accounting-based stock return regularities. A firm's accounting reports provide noisy information about hidden economic states that evolve according to a Markov process. In response to the accounting reports, a representative Bayesian investor...

This paper examines the implications of investor expectations for the joint determination of earnings manipulation and asset prices. Three alternative models of investor expectations are studied: constant-gain learning, regime-shifting beliefs, and accounting-information-system (AIS) beliefs. I...

A firm's long-term stock returns are negatively related to past growth in housing prices in the state where the firm is located. The housing price effect is persistent over time and robust to controlling for common risk factors, the long-term stock return reversal effect, changes in mortgage...

While prior studies find that returns on option straddles are generally negative, we show that returns on straddles purchased prior to earnings announcements are actually positive. The earnings announcement impact is compounded when the pre-portfolio formation volatility is low (high) and the...

We find strong evidence that net insider selling is positively associated with future stock return volatility, consistent with insider selling increasing outside investors' uncertainty. The positive effect of net insider selling is significantly stronger when the volatility is measured around...