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This paper investigates the asset pricing implications of investor disagreement about the likelihood of a systematic disaster. I specify a general equilibrium model with multiple trees and heterogeneous beliefs about rare event risk, to understand how risk-sharing mechanisms affect equity and...
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law of one price, and is present in all but risk-neutral economies. We test the cross-sectional predictions of our theory … equity than for assets, and stronger for more levered firms — consistent with the theory. We test also the timeseries … implications of the theory. Time variation in asset ivol causes time variation in the option value of equity that translates into …
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resolution. Second, to emphasize the expected (intraday) conditional correlation between the S&P 500 and VIX log-returns. A …) conditional correlation between market and volatility indices …
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Changing expected returns can induce spurious autocorrelation in returns. We show why this happens with simple examples and investigate its prevalence in actual equity data. In a key contribution, we use shifts in ex ante expected return estimates from options prices, factor models, and...
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