How do insurgents choose their tactics in civil wars? While most theories of civil war violence marginalize the role of ideology, we argue that the location, type, and lethality of insurgent violence are all shaped by the underlying spatial distribution of civilians' relative support for...

A large literature suggests that the presence of refugees is associated with greater risk of conflict. We argue that the potentially positive effects of hosting refugees on local conditions have been over-looked. Using global data from 1990 to 2018 on locations of refugee communities and civil...

Indiscriminate violence against civilians has long been viewed as a catalyst for new rounds of violence in civil wars. Can humanitarian assistance reduce violence after civilians have been harmed? Crossnational studies are pessimistic, drawing a connection between humanitarian aid and increased...