This paper examines whether there is any reason to believe that the expansion phase of the Canadian business cycle is more likely to end as time passes. Three issues are analysed -- whether there is evidence of "duration dependence" in business cycle phases, whether the pattern of business cycle...

In this paper, the authors examine how well the Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP) and the band-pass filter (BK) recently proposed by Baxter and King (1995) extract bysiness cycle frequencies for the level of macroeconomic time series.