The paper evaluates the impact of the guarantees provided by the Italian scheme Fondo di Garanzia on the access to credit for small and medium enterprises. The study exploits the mechanism that assigns the guarantees, which is based on a scoring system to assess eligibility. By using regression...

We evaluate the effectiveness of a partial credit guarantee program implemented in a large Italian region using unique microdata from a broad set of firms. Our results show that the policy was effective to the extent that it resulted in an improved financial condition for the beneficiary firms....

We use Machine Learning (ML) predictive tools to propose a policy-assignment rule designed to increase the effectiveness of public guarantee programs. This rule can be used as a benchmark to improve targeting in order to reach the stated policy goals. Public guarantee schemes should target firms...