This paper develops a new financial stress measure (Cleveland Financial Stress Index, CFSI) that considers the supervisory objective of identifying risks to the stability of the financial system. The index provides a continuous signal of financial stress and broad coverage of the areas that...

From the financial supervisor's point of view, an early warning system involves an ex ante approach to regulation, targeted to predict and prevent crises. An efficient EWS allows timely ex ante policy action and can reduce the need for ex post regulation. This chapter builds on existing...

This paper develops an extended financial stress measure that considers the supervisory objective of identifying risks to the stability of the financial system. The measure provides a continuous and bounded signal of financial stress using daily public market data. Broad coverage of material...

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk that incorporates the structural characteristics of the financial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain financial...

Growing complexity and episodic turmoil in the financial system call for reassessment of existing early warning systems (EWSs) for systemic risk. This paper critically reviews the extensive EWS literature and typology and proposes a new class of supervisory models. The paper also discusses...