Showing 1 - 10 of 65
This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We estimate these joint dynamics by combining an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky-information forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013189722
This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We estimate these joint dynamics by combining an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky‐information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316727
This paper uses a Bayesian approach to estimate a standard international real business cycle model augmented with preferences with zero wealth-effect, variable capacity utilization and investment adjustment costs. First, I find that the bulk of fluctuations in country-specific outputs,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108348
This technical note is developed as a companion to the paper ‘Assessing Bayesian Model Comparison in Small Samples’ (Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute working paper no. 189). Taking the workhorse open-economy model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010) with nominal rigidities under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084961
We investigate the Bayesian approach to model comparison within a two-country framework with nominal rigidities using the workhorse New Keynesian open-economy model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010). We discuss the trade-offs that monetary policy characterized by a Taylor-type rule faces in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084971
In the canonical monetary policy model, money is endogenous to the optimal path for interest rates, output. But when liquidity provision by banks dominates the demand for transactions money from the real economy, money is likely to contain information for future output and inflation because of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763213
This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the European Monetary Union by using Bayesian techniques. A salient feature of the model is an extension of the typically postulated quadratic cost structure for the monopolistic choice of price variables. As shown in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281666
This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112353
This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605467
We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990. Inflation over this period is asymmetric, falling more quickly than it rises. Leading indicators are also proposed, with composite shorter and longer leading indicators constructed....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789113