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This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which … allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation … model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on …
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A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By fitting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011396729
Global emissions beyond 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020 can potentially lead the world to an irreversible climate change. Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach, we predict that in a business-asusual scenario, it will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. Testing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011396730
This paper develops a small open economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that helps to explain business cycle synchronization between an emerging market and advanced economies. The model captures the specificities of both economies (e.g. primary commodity,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012052808
This paper develops a small open economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that helps to explain business cycle synchronization between an emerging market and advanced economies. The model captures the specificities of both economies (e.g. primary commodity,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141559
The paper aims at systematic placement of identification concept within Bayesian approach. Pointing to some deficiencies of the standard Bayesian language to describe identification problem we propose several useful characterizations that seem to be intuitively sound and attractive given their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112950