This paper presents one of the inflation forecasting models used by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank in its recent inflation forecasts. The model attempts to integrate all the properties of the former models considered by the author as being advantageous and desirable into a unified framework. Thus, this...

There is a large body of literature stressing the importance of developing financial markets, including stock markets, to enhance countries' growth. I argue that the relationship between stock markets and growth is exaggerated and that the simple act of opening a formal stock market is not a...

This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to assess if the data support candidate set-identifying restrictions for Vector Autoregressive models. The researcher is uncertain about the validity of some sign restrictions that she is contemplating to use. She therefore expresses her uncertainty with a...

Using a survey conduct with 240 Economics students of the University of Brasília in August, 2011, this paper explores the determinants of the academic outcome, measured as the Gross Point Average of the University. The econometric method used to estimate is Ordinary Least Squares with Bayesian...

This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model in which monetary policy follows a nominal interest rate rule that is subject to regime switches in the target ination rate. Two specifications are considered: agents know the current state of monetary policy (full information) and...

We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality using Bayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality of mortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changes for all individual age...

In this paper I estimate a New Keynesian Model with sticky prices for the Romanian economy for the period 1991-2002, using quarterly data. The estimation was made in Dynare using the Bayesian approach. The degree of the price stickiness is moderate. The model makes good predictions in terms of...

This paper investigates several issues concerning persistence in inequalities of relative income per capita among the Spanish regions over 1980-2002. For that purpose we take a Bayesian approach which extends the work by Canova and Marcet (1995). Firstly, we study to what extent there exists a...

This paper considers the performance of a model of mixture normal distributions for dichotomous choice contingent valuation data, which allows the researcher to consider unobserved heterogeneity across the sample. The model is flexible and approaches a semi-parametric model, since any empirical...

In this paper we investigate several issues concerning persistence in inequalities of relative income per capita among the Spanish regions over 1980-2002. For that purpose we take a Bayesian approach which extends the work by Canova and Marcet (1995). Firstly, we study to what extent there...