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A Bayesian Method of Forecast Averaging: An Application to the Expectations Survey of BCRA
Elosegui, Pedro; Lepone, Francisco; McCandless, George - In: Ensayos Económicos 1 (2006) 45, pp. 95-119
The BCRA publishes monthly an expectations survey (REM) that summaries the forecasts and projections of a group of economic analysts and consultants. The BCRA publishes only the mean, the median, and the standard deviation of the sample received. The logic for using these statistics is that all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551947
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A Bayesian Method of Forecast Averaging for Models Known Only by Their Historic Outputs: An Application to the BCRA´s REM
Elosegui, Pedro; Lepone, Francisco; McCandless, George - Banco Central de la República Argentina - 2006
Similar to other Central Banks, the BCRA publishes monthly a REM that summaries the forecasts and projections of a group of economic analysts and consultants who volunteer to participate in the program. The BCRA publishes only the median, and the standard deviation of the sample received. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010552026