Showing 1 - 10 of 281
This paper employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and uses posterior inclusion probability (PIP) values to evaluate which financial inclusion indicators, dimensions, and other determinants of income inequality should be considered in an empirical specification assessing the relationship between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256798
Machine learning (ML) is a novel method that has applications in asset pricing and that fits well within the problem of measurement in economics. Unlike econometrics, ML models are not designed for parameter estimation and inference, but similar to econometrics, they address, and may be better...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014332691
We utilize Bayesian model averaging to estimate a stochastic discount factor (SDF) for single-stock options. A Bayesian model averaging SDF outperforms reduced-form benchmark models in-sample and out-of-sample in pricing option return anomalies and portfolios. We document that the SDF is dense...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015204018
Machine learning (ML) is a novel method that has applications in asset pricing and that fits well within the problem of measurement in economics. Unlike econometrics, ML models are not designed for parameter estimation and inference, but similar to econometrics, they address, and may be better...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013475217
This study investigates the influences of trade and financial openness on financial development over the period 2003-2017 from a sample of 64 developing countries, employing a Bayesian model averaging approach to take into account model uncertainty. The results demonstrate that the contribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013184085
Bayesian hierarchical models serve as a standard methodology for aggregation and synthesis, used widely in statistics and other disciplines. I use this framework to aggregate the data from seven randomised experiments of expanding access to microcredit, assessing both the general impact of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020777
The existing weight of evidence suggests that financial structure (the classification of a financial system as bank-based versus market-based) is irrelevant for economic growth. This contradicts the common belief that the institutional structure of a financial system matters. We re-examine this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011471744
In this paper, we assess whether key relations between US interest rates have been stable over time. This is done by estimating trivariate hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility for the three-month Treasury bill rate, the slope of the Treasury yield curve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551600
The predictive likelihood is of particular relevance in a Bayesian setting when the purpose is to rank models in a forecast comparison exercise. This paper discusses how the predictive likelihood can be estimated for any subset of the observable variables in linear Gaussian state-space models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420345
Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141103